IlliniHQ.com
Five burning Big Ten questions
Tuesday December 30, 2008
Holly Hart
Illinois guard Trent Meacham
Vote on Illinois' best nonconference victory here.
Who's improved?
Here's the hard part with preseason prognostications: guessing which players will make dramatic improvement. Because it is, in fact, a guessing game. And Illinois senior Trent Meacham barely fits in the most-improved category, because his scoring average (12.2) is only slightly higher than last season (10.1). But it's the improvement in the other areas of his game – mainly defense – that helped the Centennial product earn his first Big Ten Player of the Week honor Monday. "I think Trent has not only shot the ball well, which has been his strength, but he's also become a much better defender," Bruce Weber said Monday. "He's also getting to the basket. He's just advanced his game." Look at the surprise teams – like Illinois – and you'll find a host of players who clearly spent the offseason in the gym. Michigan's DeShawn Sims was solid last season – now he's the Big Ten's third-leading scorer (17.2). "(Illinois forward) Mike Davis has been absolutely phenomenal this year," Big Ten Network analyst Tim Doyle said Monday. Davis averaged 10.4 minutes last season – now he's averaging 12.1 points. Minnesota's Lawrence Westbrook and Penn State's Talor Battle are two more examples, and their teams are improved as well.
Who's all-conference?
Let's revisit the preseason All-Big Ten team: Manny Harris (Michigan), Raymar Morgan (Michigan State), Robbie Hummel (Purdue), E'Twaun Moore (Purdue) and Marcus Landry (Wisconsin). And here's our All-Big Ten team based on nonconference results: Harris, Hummel, Talor Battle (Penn State), DeShawn Sims (Michigan) and Evan Turner (Ohio State). That's not how we think the postseason list will look, but that's who deserves a spot after the nonconference season. The preseason Player of the Year was Hummel. Right now, our vote would go to Ohio State's Turner, a high school teammate of Illinois guard Demetri McCamey. Turner is doing it all, ranking fourth in scoring (16.2), fifth in rebounding (7.2) and first in steals (2.7). He's the biggest reason Ohio State went from unranked in the preseason to No. 15 in the Week 5 poll. Who wins the award in the end? Most likely, the Player of the Year will come from a team that finishes in the top three in the standings. The Player of the Year has come from a top-three team in each of the past eight seasons.
Why is the Big Ten good?
Scheduling, for one. As of a week ago, the Big Ten had played 69 home games and 18 true road games. Those deep pockets for guarantee games pay off in the wins column. But the bigger reason is the men on the sideline. In the past 20 months, the Big Ten has added the likes of Tubby Smith (Minnesota's in the Top 25 for the first time since 2002), John Beilein (Michigan owns wins against Duke and UCLA), Todd Lickliter (Iowa somehow managed six conference wins last season) and Tom Crean (Indiana). You already knew about the coaching acumen of guys like Tom Izzo (four Final Fours), Bo Ryan (70-14 during the last two-plus seasons), Bruce Weber (a 74.5 winning percentage at Illinois), Thad Matta (two league titles) and Matt Painter (a second-place finish with four freshmen playing significant minutes). What does it all mean? Scouting is crucial. This week, for example, Illinois must transition from playing Purdue's pressure man-to-man defense (today) to Michigan's amoebic zone (Sunday). Illinois surprised Vanderbilt (with a new inbounds play) and Missouri (apparently with everything), but that won't happen against coaches who know the Illini almost as well as the Illini know themselves.
Who's going dancing?
Here's why the Big Ten's strong nonconference was important. If Illinois loses to Minnesota, it won't hurt its NCAA tournament resume. After all – say it together now – Minnesota beat Louisville. Or if Purdue loses to Michigan, it's OK for the Boilers, because Michigan beat UCLA and Duke. You can go down the list of the teams expected to finish in the bottom half – Northwestern (beat DePaul and Florida State), Iowa (beat Kansas State) and Penn State (won at Georgia Tech) – and you can find a way to justify a loss. Just don't lose to Indiana. (But don't put that on the Internet.) How many teams can the Big Ten put in the NCAA tournament? "I would say six or seven would be a very strong possibility," Weber said Monday. That's a stretch but not impossible. This decade, the Big Ten has averaged 4.8 teams in the NCAA tournament. For the sake of predicting, we think six teams will qualify: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. You can tell us we were wrong on March 15, Selection Sunday.
What's your prediction?
Make that, prediction(s). Ohio State was our surprise pick to win the Big Ten – until David Lighty sustained a broken foot that will sideline the guard until February, at least. So we'll take a healthy Michigan State squad to win Tom Izzo's first league title since 2001. Along the way, Michigan State will lose to Northwestern, a head-shaking loss that Big Ten coaches will try to justify and outsiders will use against the Big Ten. Also, the Big Ten champion will have four conference defeats for the second time in six years. Also, the Coach of the Year award will go to the league champion, though Michigan's John Beilein has been masterful, and no team will be better prepared than Illinois (Bruce Weber) or play harder than Purdue (Matt Painter). The most underrated backcourt will be Penn State's (Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle). And a local product will have one of the biggest impacts among Big Ten freshmen. Decatur Eisenhower's Lewis Jackson is 7-0 as a starter at Purdue. "It's just been a great experience so far," Jackson said Monday. And a great start for the Big Ten.
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