Tate: Bowl bid? Get serious, folks

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Way back in 1971, the first year of coach Bob Blackman, the Illini lost their first six football games, all by double figures, and made a stunning turnaround to finish the season with five straight triumphs.

So, yes, for those suddenly hallucinating about UI bowl possibilities, dramatic revivals can happen.

But for anyone dealing in realism, take note of what the 2-6 Illini face from his point. They'll arrive in chilly, windy Minnesota as a six-point underdog in the Gophers' new stadium ... have a history of seldom matching Northwestern's emotion in November games ... tackle the best Cincinnati team in modern times ... and host a Fresno State club that is 4-0 since losing to Wisconsin (in OT) and unbeatens Boise State and Cincinnati.

So the answer to the question everyone is asking – "Does the win over Michigan change anything?" – is "We'll know more later."

Wait a month. If the Illini finish 2-10, the hounds will be baying again. If the Illini use new-found momentum for some successes, outcries may be muffled.

The point to remember today is that one game does not a crisis avert. Not when it came against an opponent also drowning in turmoil. In case you missed it, Michigan is 3-10 in Big Ten play under Rich Rodriguez.

Timing matters

In this atmosphere, a question burns. When is the correct time to fire a coach? Ron Guenther is accused of waiting too long in pushing out Lou Tepper and Ron Turner. Is that a fair judgment? Let's analyze these two.

Guenther inherited Tepper in 1992. The Illini were highly competitive from the outset, beating Missouri and, during an eight-game stretch that season, played to scores of 17-18, 18-16 (over No. 21 Ohio State), 14-24, 26-27, 13-12, 20-17, 22-22 (tie with No. 3 Michigan) and 14-10. One thriller after another.

The Illini beat No. 13 Michigan in the 5-6 season of 1993, and defeated No. 17 Ohio State in a 1994 campaign marked by a tremendous effort in a 35-31 loss to No. 2 Penn State. The Illini blanked East Carolina 30-0 to finish 7-5.

No reasonable person would have called for Tepper to be fired at that point. But Tepper and offensive coordinator Greg Landry split after the Liberty Bowl, and a 5-5-1 season in 1995 raised questions. Guenther could have pulled the plug but, noting that three of his losses came by 3, 3 and 6 points, gave Tepper the benefit of the doubt. Was this a mistake? Call it debatable. A year later, Tepper was gone after a 2-9 season.

Turner started 0-11 and gradually brought the Illini back. His 1999 team defeated Michigan and Ohio State in an 8-4 campaign that ended with a 63-21 rout of Virginia in Miami. With Kurt Kittner at quarterback, the Illini were a disappointing 5-6 in 2000, but won an undisputed Big Ten title in the 10-2 season of 2001.

That gave Turner a cushion when he went 5-7 in 2002 (Ohio State's national champs edged the Illini in OT), and there was a push to remove him after the Illini fell to 1-11 in 2003. With hindsight, and perhaps foresight, it was time for a change. Recruiting appeared to be slipping. But loyalty ruled with Guenther, and Turner wasn't removed until the end of the 3-8 season in 2004.

Plenty to consider

In each case, it was necessary to weigh contractual concerns, recruiting prospects, ticket sales and whether success appeared likely. The UI has these same considerations today with a new one: What is Guenther's status? Is he prepared to extend his contract and, if so, how will a revamped administration handle it? Will football-related decisions be left up to him?

After all, critics fairly or unfairly point the finger at the 17-year football record, which is now 80-123-2 ... harking back to the sickly Valek-Blackman-Moeller days before Mike White and John Mackovic came along for a combined record of 77-57-4.

In this quandary, Illinois is not alone. Michigan's Wolverines returned home amid a furor of complaints. Up north, a highly dysfunctional situation is further complicated by other facts: (1) Bill Martin resigned last month as athletic director, (2) an NCAA inquiry has been initiated over excessive practice time, (3) in the midst of a statewide depression, expensive new suites are on sale for the 2010 season, (4) fans were wary initially because of Rodriguez's ugly departure from West Virginia, (5) his annual contract is $1 million higher than Ron Zook's and (6) Michigan fans have vastly higher expectations from their football team.

If the Wolverines don't rebound against similarly troubled Purdue, they'll need to win at Wisconsin or defeat Ohio State to be bowl eligible. They've already lost four Big Ten games in a row. How would the populace handle three more?

That's easy. Put it to a vote. Have you noticed how well that works?

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

Comments

"After all, critics fairly or unfairly point the finger at the 17-year football record, which is now 80-123-2 ..."

Loren: What school with a major football program would support an AD with a substantial losing record in football during the tenure of THREE coaches? Wait, Illinois is not a major football program. That explains it.

Posted by Illinigrad on November 2, 2009 at 11:47 PM | Suggest Removal

Another excellent column, Loren. I started reading your articles around 1967, and I always look forward to more of them.

--Orlando Illini

Posted by OrlandoIllini on November 3, 2009 at 6:30 AM | Suggest Removal

It's all about the money. With revamped facilities to support and suites to fill the product on the field must improve and RG has that responsibility. Will a new coaching staff help RZ stay after next year? Finishing on a high note this year might help, but the proof will be wins and losses.

Posted by illininole on November 3, 2009 at 7:50 AM | Suggest Removal

The majority of fans and the media are stating across boards, blogs and reports that we need to have much higher expectations for Illinois football than we have had under Guenther, and consistently be in the top half of the BT. Giving another year to Zook won't happen. It is also time for Ikenberry to give Guenther a DIA facilities consultant title and retirement party.

Posted by TotalIlliniFan on November 3, 2009 at 7:51 AM | Suggest Removal

Another article by Loren Tate complaining and whining about something.

Posted by ax474 on November 3, 2009 at 8:01 AM | Suggest Removal

Will somebody explain to me why Loren needs to keep harping on this issue? Last week he talked about 1 -11, now it's maybe 2 -10. Why not just celebrate the win and move on? If we go in the tank the last 4 games, then let's evaluate what to do. We've got some young kids showing some potential. Let's try to win most or all of the last 4 games and build for next year.

Posted by illiniart on November 3, 2009 at 8:45 AM | Suggest Removal

He is writing about it because people keep asking him about Illinois' bowl chances. There were numerous calls on MMQ monday on this topic. This is entirely about expectations-most had expected Illinois to play the previous contests like they did against Michigan, and no one can figure out why that hasn't been the case, other than this ridiculous schedule and some key losses from the last couple of years that have been overlooked. And one of the points of the article is that when Illinois was losing under Tepper, they were at least very competitive for some time, something we haven't seen in all of the Illini losses this year. Success has a price, and its usually the expectations that come with it, i.e. going to a Rose Bowl.

Posted by will134 on November 3, 2009 at 10:30 AM | Suggest Removal

Loren, continues to try and sell newspapers. Last week he said that for Zook to stay on he needed to beat Michigan. Now he continues on the subject of getting a new coach. He continues to stir the fire. Keeping the populace fired up.

The win against Michigan was a good one, the people loved the inspired play. So my question is, how do you inspire players that way every week? Loren what is the answer?

Posted by Jam on November 3, 2009 at 12:30 PM | Suggest Removal

Jam - I don't think the populace needs Loren to fire them up. The product on the field on Saturday afternoons is what is firing them up. As for asking Loren for the answer to your question, I doubt he's being paid $1.5M+ a year to make that happen, but I know who is.

Posted by jimbo2009 on November 3, 2009 at 1:26 PM | Suggest Removal

Let's be honest...except for a few anomalies, Illinois has never been much of a football school. Historically, going back to 1890, Illinois has won less than half of the games they've ever played...the winning percentage is 49.87%.

Posted by bernies on November 3, 2009 at 3:36 PM | Suggest Removal

jimbo2009--I think the answer is senior leadership and retention of players. Loren's consistently saying redshirting is good. However, over the years we are taking off redshirts to cover the loss of players. Where do they go?

THE PLAY of Hawthorne on Sat. I think shows that the other players are looking for inspirational leadership (a.k.a J. Lemon types)to provide that on field motivation. This inspires them to go the extra mile as they did Sat. I think this showed especially in the O and D Line play.

Posted by Jam on November 3, 2009 at 3:45 PM | Suggest Removal

Fire Ron Zook Bumper Stickers on EBAY.

Posted by on November 4, 2009 at 6:55 AM | Suggest Removal

I for one am happy that Loren Tate is "telling it like it is" One game doesn't change a season. I am estatic that Illinois found the inspiration to defeat Michigan. Maybe they got it from J Leman, or Rashard Mendenhall, or Rocky Harvey, who were in attendance. Zook can breathe a little easier, but the pressure on Zook and RG needs to continue. Mediocrity should not be acceptable for U of I football.

Posted by mekillini on November 4, 2009 at 5:58 PM | Suggest Removal

Great post mekillini! Agree 100%. The truth is we haven't even been mediocre for long stretches.

Posted by TotalIlliniFan on November 4, 2009 at 9:05 PM | Suggest Removal