Tate: Home is where the heartache is

CHAMPAIGN – Believe!

That's the goal of Ron Zook, to influence Illini players, Illini Nation and even the media to "believe."

It's a tall order, considering the regularity of UI's home football failures over time. The latest dream backfired Saturday when a good Illini team couldn't get out of its own way in losing to Minnesota, 27-20. Efforts to fire up the crowd were met, as we discovered Monday, with complaints about "people standing in front of us." And efforts to inspire the players into an out-of-body experience boomeranged in the face of Minnesota's early passes, UI turnovers and general ineptness in various aspects of the kicking game.

This wasn't Penn State on a glorious white-out night. It just didn't come off. And we are left to review a history that reveals how reasonable it is for doubt to set in.

It's hard to "believe" when Illinois has produced so few home wins in recent years. Prior to last season, when Penn State and Wisconsin caught the brunt of an Illini revival, the 10-year record shows Illinois with 11 wins in 40 home Big Ten games ... of which four came against Indiana and none against Ohio State and Michigan.

For all of the Illini's good fortune against Ohio State, the home forces are 0-6 in Champaign since 1991 while enjoying remarkable success in Columbus. Imagine, Illinois has won seven of the last 10 meetings at Ohio Stadium, and could square the series at 12-12 since 1983 by upending the Buckeyes Nov. 15.

This isn't to say that Memorial Stadium is a disadvantage. Obviously, it isn't. But most of the UI's memorable triumphs have come elsewhere. Illinois has beaten Michigan once at home since 1958, while capturing four at Ann Arbor. In the 2001 title run, the only Big Ten wins against ranked teams came at Purdue and Ohio State. The best win in 2006 was at Michigan State. The best win last year was at Ohio State. The best win so far this year was at Michigan.

And while Zook's gang was disappointing the home crowd Saturday, so were five other Big Ten hosts including the Wolverines, inexplicable 13-10 losers to Toledo. This isn't basketball, where the home advantage is overwhelming. This is football, and while the oddsmakers offer a field goal advantage to playing at home, there is no magic to it.

Here comes USC

If you wrote off Southern California in the national title race when the Trojans lost to Oregon State, look again.

USC, showing it is better to lose early than late, has rocketed to No. 4 in the USA Today poll, and No. 5 in the Harris poll. Those two polls, coupled with computer rankings, will combine to set the BCS alignment, which makes its 2008 debut next week.

Unbeatens like Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Oklahoma State are probably too far down to catch USC if the Trojans win their last seven games against Notre Dame and the weakest Pac-10 lineup in memory (none in Top 20). Meanwhile, current No. 1 Texas will be hard-pressed to survive the next three weeks against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and must travel to Kansas later ahead of a possible rematch with Missouri in the Big 12 title game.

No. 2 Alabama faces a less demanding SEC schedule but, with the conference so strong, it's unlikely the Tide will march through the SEC playoff unbeaten. And Penn State, now No. 3, could go 12-0 if the Nittany Lions get past Ohio State and Michigan State, but they'd still be an underdog against USC in Miami on Jan. 8.

It is, of course, dangerous to make such long-range projections. In case you've forgotten, 13 teams have reached the 1-2 positions in the coaches poll since last October: national champion LSU, Southern California, Ohio State, Missouri, West Virginia, Kansas, Oregon, Boston College and California last season, and adding their names this year are Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma. Life is often brief at the top, but USC has a nation's respect, and gets the benefit of doubt every time.

Going fourth

If you think you know how to make fourth and 1 under pressure, you need to inform all the wizards in the NFL staffs and the best college coaches in the business.

All these men are multimillionaires because of their coaching acumen, but they all have one thing in common. They don't know how to make a yard when it counts. It happens weekend after weekend, year after year. It's fourth and 1, and you see 22 guys squeezing in as tight as their bodies allow, ready to form a pile.

It drives me crazy. Teams spend all afternoon trying to spread the opposing defense with wideouts and clever plays. And then, when they need a yard, they get bullheaded. They pull everybody in tight to assure there'll be no running room. Yes, sometimes they make it. Just as often they don't.

My answer? Simple. If it's 50-50 whether you can ram ahead for a yard against a 10-man front, and it's logically 75-25 that you can complete a pass when they're not looking for it, then pass. Yes, critics will go wild when it falls incomplete. But who cares what critics say? Always and forever, run the play that the opponent least expects. And don't run the spread all day and then play smashmouth when it counts.

As for those complaining about Ron Zook calling for a field goal on fourth and 1 early Saturday, my preference was to go for it. But most coaches, especially those with NFL background, would choose the three-point try. When it missed, it sent a message that this might not be the UI's day. But the Illini had a full game ahead of them and didn't score a touchdown for 50 of the 60 minutes, and then it came when Minnesota completely blew a coverage by failing to line up a defender opposite A.J. Jenkins.

Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com.

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