Moline's Musings

Tough Slate for Illini Soccer

Posted by: Brian Moline

Tuesday, July 14, 2009 5:39 PM

A tough non-conference schedule has been a hallmark of Illinois soccer for the past several years, and the 2009 schedule may be the toughest yet for Janet Rayfield's Illini.  Here are my initial thoughts on this year's opponents:

Friday August 21 vs. Illinois State:  Playing an in-state school can be a tricky proposition, but the Illini will be favored to take care of the Redbirds, who were a middle of the pack team in the Missouri Valley last season. (1-0 projected record)

Friday August 28 vs. Colorado (at Denver):  The Buffaloes were an NCAA tournament team a season ago, but were upset in the first round by South Dakota State.  They made the Big 12 Tournament final, before falling to Missouri.  This game is being played at the University of Denver, and the altitude may give the Buffs a slight edge in a game between two evenly matched teams. (1-1)

Sunday August 30 at Denver:  The Pioneers also bowed out in the NCAA tournament's opening round last season, falling 2-1 to the Kansas Jayhawks.  Denver may be rebuilding a bit in 2009, as they graduated 10 seniors from last year's 19-3-2 squad.  I like the Illini to win this one, as they will have had a few days to adjust to the mile high altitude. (2-1)

Friday September 4 vs UCLA:  Storylines abound in this contest, as former Illini coach Jillian Ellis brings her perennial final four team into Illinois Soccer & Track Stadium.  These two teams last met in 2007 out in California, with the Bruins pulling away late for a 4-2 win.  This would be the type of signature win against a national program that could vault Illinois into the top ten nationally.  I'll chicken out here and predict a 2-2 draw. (2-1-1)

Sunday September 6 vs. UC Santa Barbara:  The second game of the Illini Challenge Cup presented by Gameday Spirit features a Gaucho squad that reached the NCAA Tournament last season.  The runners up in the Big West conference, UCSB will be a young team in 2009, with only two seniors listed on their current roster.  As long as the Illini don't let down after UCLA, they should come through with a victory. (3-1-1)

Friday September 11 at Portland:  The schedule doesn't get any easier here, as Portland is perennially a national power in women's soccer and has one of the toughest home fields in the country.  The Pilots finished last season with a 20-2 record, and were knocked out of the NCAA Tournament in the quarterfinals by the Stanford Cardinal.  A victory here would likely rank as the most impressive win in program history for the Illini.  I wouldn't bet on it, but that's why they play the games.  One side note...former Pilot Megan Rapinoe is a teammate of former Illini Ella Masar with the Chicago Red Stars. (3-2-1)

Sunday September 13 vs Washington (at Portland):  The Huskies were also an NCAA Tournament team in 2008 (that's 6 of 7 opponents so far if you're counting), as they were knocked out in the second round by #9 Texas A&M.  Illinois controlled play throughout the match when these two teams met last season in Champaign in a 3-0 Illini victory.  Expect the score to be a bit closer this time, but I like Illinois in this one. (4-2-1)

Friday September 18 vs Loyola (IL):  Though the Ramblers didn't qualify for the NCAA Tournament in 2008, they did prove themselves to be a dangerous opponent as they defeated nationally ranked Kansas and Milwaukee during the season.  This is another in-state opponent who could be dangerous, but I like the Illini to come out on top. (5-2-1)

Sunday September 20 vs Milwaukee:  It appears the Panthers are trying to join the Big Ten, as seven of their eleven non-conference games are against Big Ten foes.  That philosophy worked well for them last season when they went 2-0 against the Big Ten in the regular season, but not so well in the postseason, as Michigan State knocked the Panthers out of the NCAA Tournament with a 2-1 decision in the first round.  It's another dangerous game for Illinois, but I like them on their home field. (6-2-1)

Sunday September 27 vs. Minnesota:  Last season, the Gophers loaded up on inferior competition in the nonconference season and used that momentum to take them to a second place Big Ten finish and a Round of 16 appearance in the NCAA Tournament.  This year, the Gophers will increase their strength of schedule in the preconference season.  They have been a much better team at home than on the road, and that trend may very well continue in 2009.  (7-2-1, 1-0 Big Ten)

Friday October 2 at Purdue:  The Boilermakers were a bit down last season and missed the NCAA Tournament.  But they return most of their firepower this season and are a very tough team to beat in West Lafayette.  In fact, Illinois has never won there, but they have tied Purdue twice on the road.  I'll say they do that again this season.  (7-2-2, 1-0-1)

Sunday October 4 at Indiana:  The Hoosiers were one of the bigger disappointments in the Big Ten last season, finishing 8-10-1 and failing to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament.  However, they did finish strong with a 3-0-1 mark in their final four games.  One of those wins was a 1-0 win over the Illini.  Something tells me Illinois will want redemption in Bloomington this time around.  (8-2-2, 2-0-1)

Sunday October 11 vs Wisconsin:  Head coach Paula Wilkins is in the midst of turning around the Badger program, as she welcomes in another strong recruiting class in 2009.  Fortunately for Illinois, the Badgers are probably a year away from contending for a top spot in the conference.  Give Illinois the edge at home.  (9-2-2, 3-0-1)

Saturday October 17 at Iowa:  The Hawkeyes have long been at the bottom of the Big Ten, but took a step forward in 2008 by qualifying for the Big Ten Tournament with their 8th place finish in the league.  They notched a win over the Illini in Iowa City last season by a 1-0 score, which was Iowa's first win over Illinois since 2002.  I don't think the Hawkeyes will make it two in a row.  (10-2-2, 4-0-1)

Thursday October 22 vs. Ohio State:  The Buckeyes have given Illinois problems over the years, but Illinois came out on top in last year's matchup in Champaign.  Ohio State was another team that failed to live up to expectations in 2008, but should be improved this season.  Will they be improved enough to beat the Illini on their home turf?  I don't think so.  (11-2-2, 5-0-1)

Sunday October 25 at Penn State:  The Nittany Lions = Big Ten Champions.  That has been the case for eleven straight seasons.  Illinois knocked off Penn State in 2006 in Champaign, and if this year's game was at home I would give the Illini a very good chance to pull off the win.  But it's in State College, and Penn State looks loaded again this season. (11-3-2, 5-1-1)

Friday October 30 vs Michigan State:  The key here will be defense for Illinois.  The Spartans feature super sophomore Laura Heyboer who pulled off the rare double of Freshman of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year in the Big Ten in 2008.  However, Illinois was able to shut Heyboer and the rest of the Spartan attack down in both meetings last season, winning 3-0 in Champaign and falling in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on penalty kicks after a 0-0 tie through regulation and two overtime periods.  The Spartans can't win if they don't score.  (12-3-2, 6-1-1)

Sunday November 1 vs Michigan:  The Wolverines are another team on the way back under former US Women's National Team coach Greg Ryan.  Ryan has a nice recruiting class headed to Ann Arbor in 2009, but the Wolverines still lack the firepower to take out quality teams on the road.  (13-3-2, 7-1-1)

Friday November 6 at Northwestern:  Last year's loss in Evanston was the first time the Wildcats had defeated Illinois since 1999.  It appeared that the combination of the artificial turf and howling winds kept Illinois off balance for much of the contest.  It was the first time the Illini had seen that surface, so the second time should be an easier adjustment.  That said, the Wildcats should be in contention for an NCAA bid this season, so we'll predict the third tie of the season for the Illini (13-3-3, 7-1-2)

So, at this early juncture, I'm predicting a 13-3-3 overall record for Janet Rayfield's Illini, with a 7-1-2 record in the Big Ten.  With the Illini's tough schedule, that should be good enough for a national ranking in or near the top ten, and good enough to host the NCAA First and Second round.  We'll see how it all shakes out starting late next month.  Thanks for reading.

bmoline@wdws.com

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