Moline's Musings

Tournament Time for Softball?

Posted by: Brian Moline

Monday, May 4, 2009 4:26 PM

Terri Sullivan's Illinois softball team wrapped up their most successful regular season since 2004 with a two-game series sweep at Minnesota over the weekend.  The Illini finish the regular season with a 29-15 record overall and a 12-7 conference mark.  Now the Illini will sit and wait as the rest of the conference finishes up the regular season this weekend, as Illinois has their bye week.  A quick look at the conference standings shows the following:

Big Ten		Overall
Team	Record	Pct.	Record	Pct.
Ohio State	14-2	.875	42-7	.857
Michigan	14-2	.875	38-9	.809
Northwestern	12-6	.667	29-13	.690
Illinois	12-7	.632	29-15	.659
Iowa	9-7	.562	38-14	.731
Purdue	10-8	.556	27-18	.600
Penn State	7-11	.389	19-25	.432
Minnesota	6-12	.333	23-30	.434
Michigan State	4-13	.235	20-27	.426
Indiana	4-14	.222	10-37	.213
Wisconsin	3-13	.188	15-36	.294

At this point, the Illini can finish anywhere from third to fifth in the conference race.  Looking at the schedule for the last week, it appears unlikely that the Illini will be able to catch Northwestern, as the Wildcats visit last place Wisconsin this weekend.  Iowa's schedule is also favorable, as the Hawkeyes will host the Badgers for a midweek doubleheader before hosting 8th place Minnesota on the weekend.  Can Iowa win all four games to pass Illinois?  Yes, but it's never easy to win four straight.  If the Hawkeyes win three of four, they would finish a half game behind the Illini with a 12-8 conference mark.  The Illini have one fewer game because of a rainout earlier in the season against Michigan State.

Of course the Illini would like to finish as high as possible in the Big Ten standings, but whether they finish third, fourth or fifth, they should qualify for their first NCAA tournament since the 2004 squad reached the Sweet 16.  Like most other team sports, the RPI is a big factor in the selection process.  In the most recent RPI released by the NCAA (on 4/28), the Illini checked in at #29.  If anything, Illinois should have moved up in the last week by winning three of four games on the road.  The other Big Ten teams in order are Michigan (#9), Northwesern (#11 before their losses to Illinois and Ohio State), Ohio State (#19), Iowa (#22), Purdue (#55), Penn State (#71), Minnesota (#109), Wisconsin (#148), Indiana (#153) and Michigan State (#157).  Purdue is the lone bubble team in the Big Ten, and unless that RPI rises significantly in the next report, the Boilermakers are likely on the outside looking in.

The official tournament selection announcement comes up on Sunday May 10 at 9 pm.  It will air live on ESPNU.  Thanks for reading.

bmoline@wdws.com

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