Moline's Musings

Big Ten Opening Weekend

Posted by: Brian Moline

Thursday, January 22, 2009 12:19 PM

The Big Ten wrestling season gets underway tomorrow evening with three conference duals, plus one team stepping out of conference.  As I did during the soccer season, I'll try to make picks as to who I think will come out on top in each dual.  My picks will be in bold.

Friday January 23

Penn State at Indiana

Michigan State at Northwestern

Wisconsin at Iowa

Minnesota at Arizona State

Saturday January 24

Penn State at Purdue

Binghamton at Michigan

Virginia Tech at Michigan

Sunday January 25

Michigan State at Minnesota

Ohio State at Hofstra

Wisconsin at Northwestern

Illinois at Iowa

One of the best matchups of the weekend could be Penn State and Indiana.  The Nittany Lions have more ranked wrestlers, but top to bottom Indiana's lineup looks just a little stronger.  You can catch that one on the Big Ten Network tomorrow night at 6 pm.  Another good one should be on Sunday, when Wisconsin visits Northwestern.  The Wildcats have clear advantages at 125, 157 and 184, while Wisconsin is favored at 141, 149, 165, 197 and Heavyweight.  Northwestern has to hope they can get wins at 133 and 174, then it comes down to bonus points.  I give the slight edge to the visiting Badgers.

As for Illinois and Iowa, things get a little more interesting with Charlie Falck likely out of the lineup for Iowa at 125 with an ankle injury.  However, Falck's backup is no slouch, and Illinois is using a talented but green true freshman in B.J. Futrell in that spot.  I'll call that weight a tossup.  Another tossup is at 133, where Jimmy Kennedy will try to avenge his only loss so far this season, to Iowa's Daniel Dennis.  I give Jimmy the slight edge in the rematch of former high school teammates.  Iowa has clear advantages at 141 and 149, boasting the #1 ranked wrestlers at each weight.  Illinois has the edge at 157 with Mike Poeta and his #2 ranking.  The Illini will need an upset either at 165 or 174 to have a realistic chance in this dual.  Roger Smith-Bergsrud and John Dergo are both ranked, but face higher-ranked Hawkeye opponents.  At 184, we'll see how quick a study true freshman Jordan Blanton is for the Illini.  Blanton dropped an 8-3 decision to Iowa's #3 Phil Keddy at Midlands that he'll look to avenge on Sunday.  At 197, it would be an upset on paper for the Illini's Patrick Bond to win over Iowa's Chad Beatty, who's ranked 16th.  However, Bond is a two-time NCAA qualifier who appears to be rounding back into form after offseason shoulder surgery.  I like Bond to win this one.  I have the same feeling at Heavyweight, where John Wise is a slight favorite over Iowa's Dan Erekson.  Even if the Illini can win five of these ten matches, the key will likely be bonus points.  Ryan Prater and Eric Terrazas have to do everything in their power to keep their scores close at 141 and 149.  In the end, I think Iowa just has a little bit too much firepower and wins a pretty close decision.

By the way, I'm hosing an online chat tomorrow at noon here at IlliniHQ.  Feel free to submit your questions anytime between now and the conclusion of the chat. 

bmoline@wdws.com

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