Moline's Musings

Looking at the Big Ten

Posted by: Brian Moline

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 11:26 AM

With the Big Ten Wrestling season getting underway, it's a good time to look at how things are projected to shake out this year.  Here are this week's Intermat/NWCA rankings:

				1 Iowa (11) 15-0 440 1 2 Cornell 5-1 429 3 3 Iowa State 9-2 418 3 4 Nebraska 10-2 407 4 5 Ohio State 8-1 394 5 6 Central Michigan 11-1 377 6 7 Illinois 7-0 369 7 8 Lehigh 16-1 360 8 9 Minnesota 9-4 356 9 10 Boise State 10-3 341 10 11 Oklahoma 14-0 330 11 12 Missouri 14-2 326 12 13 Oklahoma State 11-4 308 13 14 Penn State 7-6 300 14 15 Wisconsin 6-3 282 15 16 Edinboro 9-4 275 16 17 Michigan 4-4 266 17 18 Old Dominion 12-5 237 21 19 Northwestern 7-3 235 19 20 Hofstra 7-2 230 18 21 Indiana 13-2 229 20 22 Northern Iowa 4-4 204 T22 23 Kent State 7-4 203 T22 24 Pitt 2-4 135 24 25 Purdue 11-1 101 NR

Based on those rankings, here's how the Big Ten standings would look:

1. Iowa 2. Ohio State 3. Illinois 4. Minnesota 5. Penn State 6. Wisconsin 7. Michigan 8. Northwestern 9. Indiana 10. Purdue 11. Michigan State

Another way to gauge the strength of each program is to look at the number of top 20 ranked wrestlers each squad has.  Here are those numbers based again on this week's AWN rankings:

1. Iowa - 9, 2. Ohio State - 7, 3. Illinois - 6, T4. Michigan - 5, T4. Minnesota - 5, T4. Penn State - 5, T7. Purdue - 4, T7. Wisconsin - 4, 9. Northwestern 3, 10. Indiana - 2, 11. Michigan State - 1.

What the above numbers show me is that after Iowa, the next several spots in the league dual standings could go a lot of different ways based on matchups.  Of course, what really matters to these programs is not the dual meet standings, but the Big Ten tournament, and qualifying for the NCAA tournament.  Again, looking at the individual rankings from AWN, let's try to anticipate how the league tournament might go if it were held today.  The rankings at each weight have at least four Big Ten wrestlers, so we'll just pick the top four.  We'll award 8 points for first, 4 points for second, 2 points for third and 1 point for fourth.  Here's how it would shake out:

1. Iowa - 40, 2. Illinois - 22, 3. Wisconsin - 17, 4. Michigan - 15, 5. Ohio State - 14, T6. Indiana - 10, T6. Northwestern - 10, 8. Penn State - 9, 9. Michigan State - 8, 10. Purdue - 3, 11. Minnesota - 2

So, we have three ways to gauge the strength of these teams.  First, through the rankings of the coaching community.  Second, through the quantity of ranked wrestlers.  Third, through the quality of those ranked wrestlers.  We'll combine those three rankings equally into one composite "power ranking" and see who comes out on top (lower total is better):

1. Iowa (3), 2. Illinois (8), 3. Ohio State (9) 4. Michigan (15), 5. Wisconsin (16), 6. Penn State (17), 7. Minnesota (19), 8. Northwestern (23), 9. Indiana (25), 10. Purdue (27), 11. Michigan State (33)

Of course, all of this is just for fun.  Iowa is clearly the best team in the Big Ten.  At first glance, it looks like Illinois and Ohio State could have a great battle for second place.  After that, it's anybody's guess.  The Big Ten wrestling season starts this week, and it should be a lot of fun.

bmoline@wdws.com

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