For the Fans

MNS prediction, my prediction, and breaking down Minnesota by the numbers

Posted by: Tom Young

Tuesday, November 3, 2009 6:35 AM

 

My Prediction

ILLINOIS 28       MINNESOTA 21

 

How will Illinois respond after a huge win against Michigan?  Here’s hoping they respond well.  Minnesota might have a 5-4 record, but looking at how they’ve gotten there it is a very soft 5-4.  Their best win is Michigan State at home, where they still allowed 34 points.  They barely squeaked by Syracuse 23-20, and the Orangeman were using a quarterback who spent the last three years playing point guard in basketball.  They only beat Air Force 20-13.  Even thought they only allowed 13 points, they gave up over 250 rushing yards.  Remember when Cal running back Jahvid Best was on the short Heisman Trophy list?  It was because of his game at Minnesota back in September when he scored all five of the Bear’s touchdowns in a 35-21 win.  He ran for 121 yards averaging 5.0 a carry. 

 

Let’s look at what Minnesota’s defense has allowed to the other team’s leading rusher dating back to the Air Force game.

 

Air Force QB Asher Clark – 90 yards on 12 carries (7.5 ypc)

Cal RB Javhid Best – 26 carries for 131 yards and 5 TD’s (5.0 ypc)

N’Western RB Arby Fields – 9 carries for 43 yards and 1 TD (4.8 ypc)

Wisconsin RB John Clay – 32 carries for 184 yards and 3 TD’s (5.8 ypc)

Penn St. RB Evan Royster – 23 carries for 137 yards (6.0 ypc)

Ohio St. RB Terrelle Pryor – 15 carries for 104 yards (6.9 ypc)

Michigan St. WR Keshawn Martin – 1 carry for 84 yards and a TD (84.0 ypc)

 

On average, Minnesota allows 171.9 yards per game on the ground.  With the way Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford ran the ball on Saturday, there’s a decent chance that they can run wild again against the Golden Gophers.  Let’s hope we keep the same gameplan that we used against Michigan.

 

Offensively, Minnesota hasn’t passed the ball as well as last year.  I figured this team would be tough with Adam Weber throwing the Eric Decker.  Even though those two guys have made their share of connections, Weber has had issues with interceptions.  In fact, he’s thrown more picks than TDs (11 TDs, 12 INTs).  On top of that, Decker is out for the season.  He torn some ligaments in his left foot and had to have season ending surgery.  Without him, Minnesota’s receiving corps takes a massive hit, and this should help out the Illini coverage team. 

 

If Minnesota is unable to throw successfully, they don’t have much of a running game to rely on.  Gone are the days when Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber III and Gary Russell struck fear in their opponents.  Nowadays, its Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge barely average more than four yards a carry.  If the Illini front four can continue to get pressure up front like they did in the second half against Michigan, Minnesota wills struggle and the offense will have ample chances to score points and pick up their first road win of the season. 

 

Time to update the prediction standings.  Everyone picked Michigan to win, except for the XBOX.  Looks like things are getting tight again. 

 

NAME                                                             W                     L                      RSDT*

 

chrispatton33 (MICH 26-13)                         4                      4                        122

Tom Young (MICH 27-17)                            4                      4                        137

Jshaw (MICH 32-10)                                      4                      4                        163

NCAA 10 (ILL 17-10)                                    4                      4                        178

Jweeks (MICH 28-14)                                    4                      4                        196

dave1956 (MICH40-14)                                 4                      2                        127

Combatmedic44 (MICH 45-3)                       4                      2                        135

Dropintheknowledge (DNP)                         0                      1                         20

kfj (DNP)                                                          0                      1                         41

 

*Real Score Difference Total

 

Time to hear from you again.  Do you think Illinois can ride the momentum, or was Saturday just a fluke?  Minnesota is an early six-point favorite.  Let’s hope things turn around for the Illini so they can finish this season on a strong note.

I-L-L...

* - All stats can be found on IlliniHQ.com - *

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