For the Fans

MNS Prediction, My Prediction, and more crazy statistics

Posted by: Tom Young

Tuesday, October 27, 2009 7:45 AM

I almost forgot to do the sim last night for this week’s Illinois-Michigan game, but I remembered at the last minute and go it done.  I play in an online dynasty where some buddies of mine and I put some bad teams into the Pac-10 and we’re going to see how good we do.  I’m Northern Illinois and I had to play at #4 USC.  I fought hard, and surprised myself by losing 34-27 in OT.  So close.

 

Since we really don’t know what’s going to happen at quarterback next week, I didn’t know what to do at first.  Coach Zook hasn’t been able to figure out who he wants back there this year and because of that, I did something different this time around.  Juice Williams started the game, and Jacob Charest came in and played the second half.  I gave each guy a chance to do his thing.  How did it turn out?  Take a look…

 

NCAA 10 on XBOX 360

ILLINOIS 17       MICHIGAN 10

 

Neither quarterback had great numbers.  Juice Willams went 8-15 for 84 yards and Jacob Charest went 8-18 for 111 yards.  Neither quarterback threw a touchdown, but at the same time, neither threw a pick.  I guess that’s good news.

 

RB Mikel LeShoure had a busy day, running 30 times for 117 yards and both of Illinois’ touchdowns.  WR Arrelious Benn led the way receiving with seven catches for 99 yards.  WR Jared Fayson had six catches for 52 yards.

 

The Illini had some decent numbers on defense.  SS Garrett Edwards led the way with six tackles.  DL Sirod Williams had the games only sack, and LB Russell Ellington and CB Dere Hicks each recorded an interception.

 

As for Michigan, they relied a lot on the passing game.  However, QB Tate Forcier didn’t get it done.  He completed only 17 passes on 41 attempts for 216 yards and two picks.  RB Brandon Minor had a nice game rushing for exactly 100 yards on 21 carries and scored Michigan’s only touchdown.

 

WR Martavious Odams led the way for the receiving corps, snatching six passes for 74 yards.  On defense, DL Brandon Graham had a monster day, registering seven tackles including four for loss.

 

My Prediction

MICHIGAN 27       ILLINOIS 17

 

It’s nice to see the defense is playing a bit better.  With that being said, that doesn’t mean they are playing great.  Purdue hurt themselves at times and with drops and mental errors and that was the reason for some of the Illini “stops”.  This is what the Illini defense has to hope for.  Until they decide to pressure the quarterback, which they’ve chosen not to do for some reason, they will have to keep hoping the opposing offense fails in its execution.  How poor have the Illini been at pressuring an offense?  They have a grand total of seven sacks in seven games.  No, that isn’t one guy with seven sacks, that’s the entire team with seven sacks.  Also, the Illini only have four interceptions this year.  Combined with last years pathetic total of six, the Illini have 10 interceptions in their last 19 games.  In FBS Football, there are 18 players that have just as many or more sacks than the entire Illini team, and there are 23 players that have just as many or more interceptions than the entire Illini team.  Sad.

 

Offensively, I don’t even know what to think.  Mikel Leshoure will probably score a touchdown on Saturday because he’s been our best player.  Other than that, who knows what will happen?  How bad is the offense?  The Illini with their 113 points, only have 19 more points than Navy QB Ricky Dobbs, who has scored 16 rushing touchdowns this year. It’s funny because out of the 120 FBS teams, Illinois’s 113 points ranks….113^th.  No other team can say their points match their ranking.  Take that NCAA!

 

The Illini have passed for 1270 yards through seven games.  Bowling Green WR Fred Barnes has 1054 receiving yards on his own!  Also, his 99 receptions are only 16 less than the entire Illini squad, and it’s 19 more receptions than Illini wide receivers have this season. 

 

Mikel LeShoure is the team’s bright spot averaging 6.5 yards a carry.  Averaging 6.5 yards, and he didn’t even play against Illinois State!  That’s ridiculous.  The sad thing is he only has 285 yards this season.  If you average 6.5 yards a carry, wouldn’t expect a coach to give you a lot more chances to run the ball?  LeShoure has 44 rushing attempts this year in seven games.  That’s only 6.3 attempts per game.  He has less rushing attempts a game than his rushing average! 

 

How are some other players averaging at least 6.5 yards a carry faring this football season?  Let’s look…

 

Fresno State RB Ryan Matthews – 1131 yards on 156 carries:  7.3 ypc, 161 ypg

Alabama RB Mike Ingram – 1004 yards on 153 carries: 6.6 ypc, 125 ypg

West Virgina RB Noel Devine – 912 yards on 137 carries: 6.7 ypc, 130 ypg

Cal RB Jahvid Best – 775 yards on 114 carries: 6.8 ypc: 111 ypg

Oregan RB LaMichael James – 735 yards on 107 carries: 6.8 ypc, 105 ypg

 

 

The second leading rushing in college football, Pittsburgh RB Dion Lewis, has 1029 yards, and he’s averaging 5.6 ypc, almost a full yard less than Mikel LeShoure!  So what have we learned here?  There’s nothing wrong with having a running back by committee, as long as that committee is Mikel LeShoure.  If the Illini run with LeShoure, that gives them their best chance to win against Michigan.  I want to see him rack up the 30 carries that he had in the “Monday Night Sim”.

 

Time to update the prediction standings.  Michigan is an 8.5-point favorite over the Illini.  Everyone except for the sim predicted Purdue to win this game, and everybody predicted Purdue to win by a bigger margin than they did, for what that’s worth.  Purdue beat Illinois 24-14, so Purdue was +10 on the real game spread.  Here are the standings through seven games…

 

NAME                                                             W                     L                      RSDT*

chrispatton33 (PUR 28-7)                              4                      3                         84

Tom Young (PUR 31-10)                               4                      3                         102

Jshaw (PUR 43-17)                                         4                      3                         116

Jweeks (PUR 35-10)                                       4                      3                         157

Combatmedic44 (PUR 27-10)                        4                      1                         68

dave1956 (PUR 38-6)                                     4                      1                         76

NCAA 10 (ILL 27-20)                                     3                      4                         160

Dropintheknowledge (DNP)                         0                      1                         20

kfj (DNP)                                                          0                      1                         41

 

* - Real Score Difference Total

 

Time to once again predict the outcome of the Illini’s next game.  Maybe it takes a big rival like Michigan coming to town to spark the Illini.  Maybe an Illini player will stay in the game long enough to get in a rhythm.  Maybe Williams or Charest throw two or three touchdown passes.  It’s Halloween, so who knows what strange things could happen at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

 

* All stats can be found on IlliniHQ.com *

 

I-L-L…

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